Oregon: The Class of the Pac-12 and a Legitimate Final Four Candidate

Chris Boucher, the reigning National JUCO Player of the Year, is averaging 12.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and over three blocks per game for an Oregon team that is red-hot and currently ranked #3 in the RPI. 

Midway through Pac-12 conference play, Oregon not only leads the way with a 7-2 league record but also has the look of a darkhorse Final Four team.

The Ducks have won four straight, 11 of their last 13, and just recently wrapped up a very successful trip to the Grand Canyon State in which they snapped Arizona’s 49-game home winning streak on Thursday before taking care of business Sunday at Arizona State.

ESPN’s latest Bracketology update projects Oregon as a 3-seed, but still many seem to be sleeping on the Ducks. Their RPI is 3. Ditto for their strength of schedule. And they haven’t just faced some of the best teams in the country—they’ve beaten them: Oregon is a remarkable 7-2 vs. the RPI Top-50.

While the game against Arizona State on Sunday didn’t represent another opportunity to gain a Top-50 win, the Ducks’ 91-74 victory over ASU was impressive nonetheless, as the matchup had a classic “trap game” feel after Oregon’s mammoth win at UofA just three days prior.

Oregon jumped out to a 13-0 lead, but the Sun Devils had trimmed the margin down to a single point by halftime. In the second half, Oregon exploded offensively, outscoring ASU 54-38 after the break by getting out in transition and knocking down free throws despite shooting into the “Curtain of Distraction”. The Ducks shot it a 65% clip in the second half and put the game on ice via a 9-0 run following a Bobby Hurley technical.

Leading the way for Oregon was 6’10” Chris Boucher, the National Junior College Player of the Year last season at Northwest College in Wyoming. Boucher finished with a career-high 26 points to go along with 10 rebounds and 7 (!) blocks. He runs the floor extremely well, serves as a great rim protector alongside Jordan Bell, and was 4-of-8 from behind the arc.

Boucher has been a godsend for Oregon this year, making the transition from the junior college ranks to high-level D-1 basketball look too easy. He is technically a senior, however the Ducks plan to appeal after the season and are confident that they will have Boucher’s services for an additional year.

And Boucher is just one member of a three-headed frontcourt that is arguably the most versatile in America.

Sophomore Dillon Brooks has broke out onto the national scene this year, averaging nearly 17 points per game to go along with 6 rebounds and 3 assists. A serious candidate to win Pac-12 Player of the Year, Brooks is the reigning Pac-12 Player of the Week and is projected by some NBA Draft services to be a future first-round pick.

It’s not hard to see why: he can score at all three levels, highlighted by an advanced mid-range game, and the Canadian uses his strength to get to the rim almost at will. Over the Ducks’ last six games, Brooks has averaged 20.5 PPG on 53% shooting.

Then there’s senior Elgin Cook, putting up 13.5 PPG and 4.5 RPG while shooting 34% from “three.” With the 6’6” Cook and 6’5” Brooks each playing 30+ minutes a game and holding down the small forward and power forward positions, the Ducks create matchup nightmares for opponents. Sunday served as the latest example, with the trio of Boucher/Brooks/Cook combining for 58 points on just 31 field goal attempts.

Setting the frontcourt up is usually Casey Benson, who lacks in playmaking skills but flaunts a ridiculous 72:13 assist-to-turnover ratio. Benson’s ball security and steady play has somewhat alleviated the pain of Villanova transfer Dylan Ennis being sidelined for the year with a foot injury.

Benson’s backcourt mate, freshman Tyler Dorsey (#38 in ESPN100), is averaging 13.5 PPG while shooting 43.5% from behind the arc. Off the bench, head coach Dana Altman has two guys that could start at many other places in Bell and Dwayne Benjamin (or Snoop Dogg, per Bill Walton).

The Ducks are loaded, rank 9^th in offensive efficiency per KenPom, and have Boucher and Bell to erase many mistakes on the defensive end.

If this team continues to be slept on, one might just wake up to find Oregon still playing in April.

 

 

Undermanned Wake Forest Picks Up Sneaky-Good Road Win at Bucknell

With the injury to Codi Miller-McIntyre, freshman Bryant Crawford (above) has been thrown right into the fire at the pointguard spot. Crawford could not have responded better on Sunday, recording a team-leading 21 points and 7 assists–18 and 5 of which came in the second half–of a Wake Forest comeback win over Bucknell.

Wake Forest is not exactly beginning the 2015-2016 campaign at full strength.

Not only does senior pointguard Codi Miller-McIntyre (14.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.3 APG in 2014-2015) remain sidelined with a broken foot, but there’s also the suspended sophomore tandem of Cornelius Hudson and Rondale Watson. Those subtractions leave the Demon Deacons with just eight scholarship players available.

Of those eight, only forward Devin Thomas and guard Trent VanHorn—a former walk-on, nonetheless—are upperclassmen.

Wake struggled to conceal its general inexperience and shorthanded rotation in the season opener Friday at home against UMBC, barely eking out a five-point win thanks to a combined 40 points and 33 rebounds from Thomas and sophomore Dinos Mitoglou.

With all due respect to UMBC, much more of a collective effort—particularly better production from the backcourt—was required on the road against Bucknell, who was picked to finish second in the Patriot League this year.

And that’s exactly what transpired on Sunday. Wake overcame a 13-point deficit to beat Bucknell, 90-82, instantly getting the Demon Deacons halfway closer to their road win total (2) from all of last season.

Thomas, a walking double-double, had 18 points and 12 rebounds. Freshmen bigs Doral Moore and John Collins gave good minutes off the bench.

But it’s the guards that provided the difference.

Bryant Crawford, the #80 recruit in this year’s class per Rivals, has been thrown right into the fire at pointguard due to Miller-McIntyre’s absence. After shooting just 2-9 FG with a pair of assists against UMBC, Crawford led Wake with 21 points and 7 assists versus Bucknell—18 and 5 of which came after the break. Crawford’s vision is truly special, a statement he validates via his many no-look dimes. He also hit a pair of threes and went 7-10 from the line.

Sophomore running mate Mitchell Wilbekin chipped in a career-high 17 points, with three of those coming on a dagger triple when the Sojka Pavilion crowd was momentarily rejuvenated.

Then there’s VanHorn, who was finally awarded a scholarship only when Madison Jones was booted from the program this offseason, serving as a pest to a couple of Bucknell shooters who were looking all too comfortable in the first half. VanHorn often drew the assignment of All- Patriot League guard Chris Hass, who finished with a hard-earned 26 points and connected on just 1-6 FG in the second half.

In the initial 20 minutes, Bucknell shot 50% from the floor and made 8 of 15 three-pointers. After halftime, the Bison shot just 25% from the floor and made 3 of 14 three-pointers. VanHorn is as big a reason as any Demon Deacon for those splits being so drastic.

There’s a really good chance Wake Forest does not win this type of game last season. The future is very bright in Winston-Salem with the likes of Crawford, Moore, and Collins, but the present isn’t so bad, either. And that’s due in large part to the Crawford-Wilbekin-VanHorn backcourt trio mitigating the concerns of a somewhat depleted roster at the moment.

 

Texas Could Be in for a Long (but Familiar) Season

Texas opened the 2015-2016 season with an underwhelming loss to a young Washington team. If it weren’t for Isaiah Taylor, it could’ve been even worse.

Never should a team be solely judged by a 40-minute sample, especially a season opening one in Shanghai.

Still, the Texas Longhorns could not have left a worst first impression in head coach Shaka Smart’s debut.

Picked to finish 4^th in the Big-12 this season, Texas—whose 11-man rotation on Friday consisted of five seniors and three juniors—looked like the more erratic and divergent squad against Washington, who not only were chosen to finish second-to-last in the Pac-12 but also played seven freshman (including four who started).

It’s not often that a program that has made 16 of the last 17 NCAA tournaments decides to go in a different direction as far as their head coach is concerned. But such is the case at Texas, where expectations are higher than most.

The Longhorns’ last Sweet 16 appearance came in 2008. In seven years since, they have accounted for twice as many 1^st-round NBA Draft picks (6) as NCAA Tournament wins (3).

A change was needed. So out went Rick Barnes, and in came Smart, 38-years-old and the leader of mid-major darling Virginia Commonwealth for six seasons prior.

Smart couldn’t have handpicked a better incoming roster on DraftKings. On paper, Texas’ backcourt is loaded: Isaiah Taylor, Demarcus Holland, Kendal Yancy, Javan Felix, plus incoming freshmen Kerwin Roach (#34 recruit in the 2015 class per Rivals), Eric Davis Jr. (#59 per Rivals), and Tevin Mack (#61 per Rivals).

And, while the frontcourt has a different look to it from last year with Jonathan Holmes and Myles Turner moving on, there’s still Cameron Ridley, Connor Lammert, Prince Ibeh, and Shaquille Cleare (transfer from Maryland).

The same theme that has plagued Texas for the better part of the last decade—great talent underachieving—reared its ugly head again on Friday. Texas shot 26.8%, was outrebounded by Washington 62-49, and seemed to finish runner-up in every loose ball.

Without Isaiah Taylor, UT might have gotten run out of the Mercedes-Benz Arena. The junior point guard was terrific, scoring a career-high 29 points on a career high 12 free throws made. Taylor was 8-17 from the field, 12-15 from the line, and 1-2 from “three.”

The rest of Texas? 11-54 from the field (20.4%), 19-33 from the line (57.6%), and 1-13 from “three.”

The Longhorns looked completely lost on offense, deprived of any semblance of rhythm or cohesion, and posed no threat whatsoever outside the paint. Texas shot 4-39 on jump shots and had five team assists compared to 14 turnovers. Unless it was Taylor bailing out his teammates by breaking down the defense and getting wherever he wanted, UT possessions mostly ended in ill-advised jumpers, wild drives to the rim, or poor post feeds.

Felix and Yancy didn’t make a single field goal, combining for 9 points on all free throws. The freshmen trio of Roach, Davis Jr., and Mack totaled 14 points on 3-30 shooting.

Plus, Smart must have left his “HAVOC” style of play back in the United States. Texas scored just six points off turnovers and six points on the fast break.

Again, it’s only one game, and UT will probably never shoot under 27% again this season. Also, while Washington is predominantly wet behind the ears and is basically in rebuilding mode, they played much better than advertised and should grow up quickly.

But the point is that the initial version of the 2016 Longhorns looks like more of the same from the recent past and, aside from the visual broadcast, you would’ve had no idea that it was Shaka Smart and not still Rick Barnes holding the clipboard.

Weekend Shootaround: 2 ACC Gems, G’Town-Nova, and the Pack Line Philosophy

Juwan Staten and the WVU Mountaineers thrive on pressure, creating more turnovers than any team in the country. But, if you are able to break the WVU press, success awaits in the form of easy buckets.

2015’s first Weekend Shootaround column is loaded, and for good reason.

Four of Saturday’s games consist of two ranked teams, including a pair of Top-11 matchups in what is the country’s best conference at the top, the ACC.

As the sun begins to set on league play—we are right at the midway point—America is still left with more questions than answers.

Such as: Can someone please permanently fill the gaping void that is 2^nd place in the Big-12? Out of Virginia, Notre Dame, Louisville, UNC, and Duke, which one will be the odd man out for the ACC Tournament’s double-bye? What does Tulsa have to do in order to garner some national respect? And how will No. 1 Kentucky fare in its most daunting stretch of the season until March Madness?

A reminder that Selection Sunday takes over your lives in just 5 weeks from this Sunday.

And now, the games you absolutely must be tuned into this weekend are as follows:

 

No. 10 Notre Dame @ No. 4 Duke (1:00, CBS)

I start with this game because it’s a rematch of one of the most entertaining two-hour windows college basketball has seen this season.

On January 28^th, Jahlil Okafor’s 22-point, 17-rebound eruption was outdone by Jerian Grant, who played all 40 minutes, had 23 points, 12 assists, 6 rebounds, 3 steals, and 2 blocks—all of which were game-highs beside rebounds—against only 3 turnovers, none of them coming in the final 24 minutes of the game. More importantly, Notre Dame won the game.

It was Grant’s “Heisman moment,” if you will, and the senior is finally getting showered with the adulation he so heartedly deserves. The season is far from over, but if it ended today, in a perfect egalitarian Utopia, Jahlil Okafor would be National Player of the Year and Jerian Grant should be ACC POY.

ND coach Mike Brey is going for his third straight win over Mike Krzyzewski, whom he was an assistant under. In order to put an end to that streak, Krzyzewski may want to work on his frontcourt’s ability to make free throws: In Duke’s 77-73 loss to ND a few weeks ago, Jahlil Okafor, Amile Jefferson and Marshall Plumlee combined to go 2-11 from the line.

It’s almost impossible to imagine Saturday not being another instant classic, and one where points come on the cheap. Notre Dame, owner of the most efficient offense in the country (123.7 points per 100 possessions), is the only team in America that has averaged at least 1 PPP (point per possession) in every game this year, according to ESPN Stats & Info. And the Dukies are no slouch, coming in as the 5^th most efficient offensive squad (119.4).

BONUS***: Draft Express provided awesome in-depth scouting recently on Jahlil Okafor. Some of the more interesting tidbits (includes data from the 14 games in which they’ve been able to track Okafor this year): Okafor draws a ridiculous 8 personal fouls on the opponent per 40 minutes…Duke scores 1.3 PPP when Okafor gets a post touch, and the Blue Devils score only .993 PPP in all half-court possessions (hence why they should—and often do—feed the big fella early and often)…Okafor makes a video game-like 75% of the shots in which he does not dribble at all (dunks, quick post moves, etc.)…Lastly, Okafor gets 14.3 post touches per game. “For comparison’s sake, only one player in the NBA gets more post-touches than Okafor currently does in college: Al Jefferson.”

 

No. 9 Louisville @ No. 3 Virginia (7:00, ESPN)

If you don’t know, and if you aren’t fully in love with, the stratagem behind Virginia head coach Tony Bennett’s Pack-Line defense by now, I’m sorry but I can’t help you.

On second thought, I can. In simplest terms, the Pack-Line attempts to prohibit dribble-penetration in the paint via the defenders one-pass-away—usually the wings packing the paint—and, per Coaches Clipboard, “instead of defenders [denying that first pass], they will sag back inside the imaginary ‘pack line’. The pack line is an imaginary line two feet inside the three point arc.” The Pack Line is also predicated on denying baseline—the on-ball defender should funnel the slasher into the middle of the floor, where help awaits. Pack Line frontcourt defenders front the post, and normally, post touches are immediately doubled on the throw.

Rick Pitino had a cool quote about UVA’s indefatigable defense, which flummoxes opponents to the level of 50.9 PPG (best scoring defense in the country): “Five guys play the ball.”

In my opinion, this is a nightmarish matchup for Louisville. The Cardinals butter their bread in transition, and Virginia is probably the best in the land when it comes to transition defense (allow just over 2 transition points per game). Louisville’s half court offense can be unhealthy to watch, and when guards Terry Rozier and Chris Jones struggle to probe the gaps and penetrate the lane—which should obviously be the case against the Pack Line—the Cardinals resort to jumpers, a completely horrifying spectacle.

It reminds me of Louisville hosting Duke earlier this year, in a game where 37 of UL’s 61 shot attempts came outside of the paint, including 25 threes, most of which were unanswered prayers. That was when Krzyzewski employed the 2-3 zone full-on, and the Pack-Line takes on the shape of a 2-3 in that the paint is flooded with defenders. That’s basically a death sentence for Louisville, unless Rick Pitino can drastically tweak his gameplan, get Montrezl Harrell going, and the Cardinals can somehow scrape their way to around double-digit made threes.

Whereas Notre Dame-Duke should have the free-flowing style of an AAU game in August, Louisville-Virginia has all the requisites of a defensive coordinator’s wet dream: Virginia has the 3^rd most efficient defense nationally (85.9 points yielded per 100 possessions, while Louisville is just behind the Cavs (86.1, 4^th best).

One last note: This is the final game of a crazy three-game stretch for Virginia, in which they hosted #4 Duke, played at #12 UNC, and now are hosting #9 Louisville in a span of 7 days.

 

#24 Georgetown @ #7 Villanova (2:00, FOX)

With all the conference realignment and jam-packed leagues nowadays, it’s rare that the league’s elite play a home-and-home. In the 14-team Big-10, for example, you only play four teams twice, so the odds are not in the fans’ favor.

But this weekend, we have two such games that are rematches of the elite: Duke-Notre Dame, and Georgetown-Villanova.

On January 19^th, Georgetown obliterated Nova 78-58. The 58 points Nova scored were a season-low, as were the 14 made field goals—the Wildcats made just 7 two-pointers all game! Villanova had its highest turnover percentage of the year, and got dominated by the Hoyas in two key areas: points in the paint (G’Town outscored Nova 26-10 in this department) and points off turnovers (G’Town 24-7). That should be at the top of Jay Wright’s whiteboard in the pregame huddle on Saturday.

Georgetown has been tough to figure out. The Hoyas have already been swept by Xavier—both basically in blowout fashion—and Providence. Sweeping Villanova would go a long way toward improving G’Town’s NCAA Tournament chances.

As for Nova, it’s time to get Daniel Ochefu back on track. The 6’11” junior, one of the better back-to-the-basket scorers both in the Big East and nationwide, has scored just 7 points or less in 6 of the last 7 games. Guard Dylan Ennis has also been laboring to the tune of 6 total points in the last 3 games.

How has Nova been able to stay atop the Big East despite not getting much from two of its main cogs? Ryan Arcidiacono, that’s how. Arcidiacono is basically taking the same number of shots per game as he did in the nonconference portion of the season, but he’s been otherworldly in terms of improved efficiency and has rediscovered that three-point stroke.

 

#19 Baylor @ #15 West Virginia (12:00, ESPNU)

Like diamonds, West Virginia thrives on pressure. ESPN Stats & Info summed up the Mountaineers’ strengths quite nicely: WVU is 1^st nationally in opponents’ turnover percentage (31% of possessions), steals per game (12.2), steal percentage (17%), and opponents’ turnovers per game (21.9).

To put it into perspective as to just how prolific West Virginia is at creating turnovers, WVU has forced 48 more turnovers than any other Big-12 team in conference games only. Mountaineers’ Big-12 opponents are averaging 20.2 turnovers per game—the next best mark is Oklahoma’s 13.4. That’s staggering.

But (isn’t there always a but?) if you break WVU’s pressure, which is much more easily said than done, success awaits. West Virginia is last in the Big-12 in opponents’ shooting percentage (45.4%). WVU just got smoked by Oklahoma, in a game where the Sooner shot 61.4% for the game.

That’s why Baylor has a legitimate shot to win in Morgantown Saturday, because the Bears possess a ton of shot-makers in guys like Kenny Chery, Royce O’Neal, Lester Medford, and Taurean Prince. Baylor also has Ricardo Gathers, who averages 12.3 rebounds per game (2^nd best nationally), leads the country in offensive rebounds, and is an awesome presence on defense.

West Virginia is hoping that Devin Williams can play in order to keep Gathers at bay on the glass. Williams, who puts up 11 points and 8 rebounds per game, has scored 14+ in 6 of the 8 Big-12 games he’s appeared in, but he missed the Oklahoma game with an illness.

It’s about time Baylor plays a complete game on the road for the first time all year, but will that come in Morgantown?

Others to Keep an Eye On:

Saturday (144 total games)

Providence @ Xavier (1:00, Fox Sports 1)

#8 Kansas @ Oklahoma State (2:00, ESPN)

Purdue @ Minnesota (3:00, BTN)

#25 Texas @ Kansas State (4:00, ESPN)

#23 SMU @ Tulsa (8:00, ESPNU)

#1 Kentucky @ Florida (9:00, ESPN)

Sunday (only 17 total games)

Michigan @ Indiana (1:00, CBS)

#17 Maryland @ Iowa (3:15, BTN)

Washington @ Oregon State (4:30, FS1)

#20 Ohio State @ Rutgers (5:30, BTN)

Clemson @ Miami (6:30, ESPNU)

Perrantes Helps Virginia Get Its Swagger Back

Virginia point guard London Perrantes rarely drifts from his comfort zone on the offensive end–even his Twitter handle is @passfirstpg–but he showed off a nice midrange game Monday night in UVA’s win over UNC, finishing with 15 points, his second highest total of the season.

The Virginia Cavaliers, the same ones who won both the regular season ACC title and conference tournament last year, were 19-0, ranked No. 2 in the country, and enjoying an eight-point cushion with under five minutes left against No. 4 Duke in College Gameday’s first-ever trip to John Paul Jones Arena.

At that point in time, the only foreseeable concerns were rather trite, such as where the after-party would take place and how many first-place votes Virginia could steal from Kentucky in the Monday polls.

Only Duke had other ideas. The Blue Devils hit 5 three-pointers over the final 4:41, coming back from 11 down in the second half without much help from Player of the Year candidate Jahlil Okafor to absolutely steal a much-needed conference win.

For Virginia, it was the kind of oppressive loss that was as much deflating as it was blindsiding, like a breakup between a couple that seemed to come from beyond left field.

It could have been demoralizing. It’s possible that the Duke game would throw off Virginia’s entire season, the one they had traversed flawlessly up to that point.

Turns out, all Virginia needed was a single half to get its swagger back.

With games this week at No. 12 North Carolina and home versus No. 9 Louisville, both of whom are breathing down the Cavaliers’ necks in the ACC standings, Virginia could not afford a long-lasting hangover from what transpired in crunch-time on Saturday.

After looking a bit out-of-sorts and showing middling energy in the first half Monday night—UNC led 33-32 at the break—Virginia snapped out of its funk and got back to playing the UVA brand of basketball that we’ve grown so accustomed to seeing the last year and a half.

Virginia (20-1, 8-1 ACC) jumped out to a 32-15 run in the second half in an eventual 75-64 victory over UNC (17-6, 7-3 ACC) that wasn’t nearly as close as the score indicated in the latter frame.

The usual suspects made waves for the Cavaliers, as Malcolm Brogdon had 17 points, Justin Anderson 16, and Anthony Gill 13—UVA’s top three scorers on the year.

Rather unusual was the aggressiveness of point guard London Perrantes.

A traditional game-manager, and a superb one at that—Perrantes has the 2^nd best assist-to-turnover differential in the ACC behind only Notre Dame’s Jerian Grant, the frontrunner for ACC Player of the Year—Perrantes took 10+ shots for only the second time all season, finishing with 15 points (on 6-10 FG) and 6 assists to only 2 turnovers.

That’s found money for the Cavaliers, considering Perrantes averages just 5.2 PPG and shoots a horrendous 32% from the field, but UNC showed him no respect with the ball in his hands, so Perrantes decided to show off his hidden midrange game.

Even without Perrantes’ outburst, offense would not have been the problem for Virginia this particular evening. UVA has a top-two defense nationally across the board no matter what metrics are utilized, but UNC spent most of the first half getting the shots they desired with minimal effort.

The Tar Heels shot 52% in the initial 20 minutes, and starting big men Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks were a major reason why, having field days inside to the tune of 19 points on 8-14 FG. Virginia nearly always doubles the post upon the catch, but some of the doubles were late, and sloppy rotations were even more tardy.

But the Cavaliers second-half defense was the Pack Line in its truest beauty, as UNC shot 38% and the Johnson-Meeks combination was held to 6 points after halftime. UVA reacted much better to post-up doubles, the defensive rotations were crisp, and help was present whenever called upon. Meeks, who did have a fever Monday morning, eventually succumbed to the swarming UVA double-teams, finishing with 6 turnovers. Virginia had 6 of its 9 steals in the second half as well.

UNC finished the game with just two fast-break points, a far cry from what they average and a spectacular omen for Virginia, who amazingly got outscored 14-0 in that department in the Duke loss.

Another key number for the Cavaliers tonight? 18, as in the number of team assists they accrued. Perrantes had 6, as previously mentioned, and Anderson chipped in a career-high 7 dimes (to only 1 turnover).

Overall, it was a statement win for Virginia, who now has a trio of ridiculous road wins—ridiculous in terms of padding the NCAA Tournament resume, that is—in @ North Carolina, @ Notre Dame, and @ Maryland.

It’s a message to the rest of the ACC that Virginia is still the cream of the crop, and that the title will go through Charlottesville once again.

Next up is a date with the Louisville Cardinals at home on Saturday. If Monday night’s game was any indication, UVA’s emotions should be in check and the Cavaliers should be ready to play against Rick Pitino’s squad.

I say that because of how Virginia responded tonight. They had every right to hang their heads from the Duke loss, to carry over that funk into Chapel Hill. But they instead regrouped quickly and thoroughly outplayed a really good North Carolina team, albeit one that was dealing with its own weekend tragedy (lost in OT at Louisville after getting out to an 18-point lead).

 

Here’s what I else I took from Virginia-UNC:

Virginia’s individual players are so underrated because they buy into Tony Bennett’s system so well, and Anthony Gill is no exception.

Gill leads Virginia in FG% (56.6%), rebounds per game (6.5), and free throws attempted. Nationally, the junior is 14^th in offensive rebounding percentage (15.1%), 13^th in defensive rating (estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions), and 3^rd in win shares per 40 minutes (kind of like WAR in baseball, if you will, extrapolated for a full game). He’s behind only Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky and Utah’s Delon Wright in that category, and those two could very well end up being First Team All Americans.

So why would Tony Bennett start Mike Tobey over Gill, as he did against UNC Monday night?

I believe it was to keep Gill out of foul trouble. A guy never previously associated with being a hack—his 3.5 personal fouls committed per 40 minutes is 7^th on the team—Gill has had some trouble staying on the court in conference play this year. Before the UNC game, Gill was averaging 4.6 PF per 40 in UVA’s first 8 conference games. And in the last 3 games (vs. Duke, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech), Gill committed 10 fouls in 52 minutes! That’s 7.69 fouls per 40 minutes.

Gill was whistled just once Monday night, and his 27 minutes played were the most since January 7^th. The numbers at the beginning of this note only scratch the surface of just how valuable Gill is to Virginia, and it’s imperative that the big guy stays out of foul trouble down the stretch run.

ALSO…

Maybe the thing that worries me most about Virginia is its underutilization of the charity stripe.

Coming into the UNC game, the Cavaliers had the 2^nd worst free throw rate among ACC teams (27.7% FTr; calculated by FTA/FGA), and UVA’s opponents had committed the fewest fouls per conference game (14.8 FPG).

This may be silly to fuss over, considering (A) Virginia’s offensive efficiency is ranked 6^th per kenpom, and (B) Notre Dame, whose offensive efficiency kenpom deems 2^nd best nationally, is 2^nd-worst in the ACC among fouls drawn per game.

Then again, Jerian Grant is 3^rd in the ACC with 87 made free throws in conference games. (Virginia doesn’t have anyone in the Top-15 in free throws made.) Grant is also 8^th in FT attempted, while teammate Zach Auguste is tied for 16^th in the same category. (Gill leads UVA in FTA—shocker huh?—and he just cracks the conference’s top-20).

Plus, Notre Dame is an offensive juggernaut. The Fighting Irish have shot under 42% from the field just once all year, when they shot 33.9% in a loss to (ironically enough) Virginia.

Why do I use the 42% threshold, you ask? Because it’s a good number when examining Virginia’s game stats from this year: UVA has shot under 42% in 4 games this year.

On the year, the Cavaliers average 17.2 free throws per game, which is tied for 311^th nationally (out of 351 D-1 teams) and third worst among power conference teams (only Michigan and Northwestern average less FTA). And in the four games in which UVA shot under 42%, here’s their free throw numbers: 7-9, 10-12, 9-10, 8-10.

Virginia is actually 18^th nationally—and leads the ACC—in free throw percentage, connecting on 74% of its freebies. But UVA refuses to show discipline in getting to the line, and alarmingly enough this group has frequented the line even less when they have shot poorly from the field.

In those four sub-42% games, Virginia has attempted 67 three-pointers (25% success rate) and 41 free throws (83% success rate).

As great as Virginia’s defense is, it’s not going to singlehandedly deliver UVA its first-ever national championship. And, with recent history serving as staunch proof, the majority of teams will face an off-shooting night sometime in March, when it’s the best against the best in win-or-go-home formats.

Connecticut won the national championship in 2014. Louisville won in 2013. Kentucky won in 2012. UConn also won in 2011, and Duke won in 2010.

I went back, took a peek at the March schedules of their respective championship campaigns, and here’s what I found: UConn ’14, UL ’13, UK ’12, and Duke ‘10 all experienced sub-42% shooting nights in tournament games—and all but one, the Louisville-Syracuse Big East Championship, took place in the NCAA Tournament. (I omitted UConn ’11 because they had multiple sub-42% March outings. They were able to supplant that with Kemba Walker.)

Last year, UConn shot 34.7% from the field against Michigan State in the Elite 8. How did they possibly overcome that? By going 21-22 from the line.

In that 2013 BET final, Louisville was held to 40.4% shooting vs. Syracuse’s 2-3 zone. They got to the line 36 times that evening, connecting on 26 FT.

Kansas played good defense against Kentucky in the 2012 national championship—KU held the loaded Cats to 41.1% FG–but allowed UK to go 15-21 from the charity stripe.

And, in 2010, Duke had quite an early scare in a Sweet 16 matchup with Purdue, just barely getting to 40% shooting, but it advanced in large part to a 20-24 mark at the line.

Remember, in the four games in which Virginia shot under 42% this year, they shot 41 free throws and 67 threes.

In the four sampled games in which UConn ’14, Louisville ’13, Kentucky ’12, and Duke ’10 shot under 42%, they totaled 103 free throws and 70 threes.

Just some food for thought is all.

 

Krzyzewski Sells Soul to Devil in Win at Louisville

Duke, the same team that emerged as Kentucky’s greatest threat starting in early December, was seeing the season flash right before its eyes.

The Blue Devils were completely unraveling. After starting the year 14-0, Duke was ran off the PNC Arena floor last Sunday by a North Carolina State squad that shot 55% overall, 10-16 from three, and put up a 50-spot in the second half.

A one-game aberration, right? Surely Duke would rediscover its first-semester self, the one that was associated just as commonly with lockdown perimeter defense as it was with clinic-type precision on the offensive end.

Next up was a home date with the Miami Hurricanes. Duke proceeded to hand head coach Mike Krzyzewski his 5^th largest loss ever at Cameron Indoor on Tuesday, as the Miami backcourt trio of Angel Rodriguez, Sheldon McClellan, and Manu Lecomte combined for 61 points (and 8 made threes) in a 90-74 shelling—Duke gave up 56 in the second half this time.

It was the first time Duke dropped two straight games by at least 12 points since 1996 (tip of the hat to ESPN Stats & Info for that gem). The last time Duke lost two straight in conference play by at least a dozen? 1983.

It looked like Coach K was going to sit on 997 wins for all eternity.

Coming into Saturday’s Top-10 tilt at Louisville, Duke couldn’t afford a third straight loss. Not this year; not with the talent on this roster.

So Mike Krzyzewski sold his soul to the devil.

The man who is so steadfast on employing a man-to-man, wing-denial defensive scheme—Duke had resorted to zone on less than 4% of possessions coming into Saturday—played mostly all 2-3 zone in #4 Duke’s 63-52 win over #6 Louisville.

Louisville’s primary weakness is outside shooting—the Cardinals shoot 30.4% from distance—and Duke assured itself that it was going to expose that weakness worse than Richard Sherman exposed Michael Crabtree on the mic.

Louisville shot under 30% from the field (18-61 FG), took 25 threes yet made just 4 (16% 3FG), and when it wasn’t a desperation heave from behind the arc it was usually an ill-advised midrange jumper.

The Cardinals were 6-37 FG (16.2%) from outside the paint.

Wayne Blackshear shot 2-10, Terry Rozier 5-16, and Chris Jones 2-10. For those majoring in something other than math, that totals 9-36 (25%) from your three best perimeter players.

Over half of those attempts were threes, and wouldn’t you like to know the three-point percentages of Blackshear, Rozier, and Jones: 31%, 33.3%, 33.3%.

It was clever of the Duke coaching staff to go zone against Louisville. The Blue Devils have a few defensive liabilities that could be somewhat hidden in the zone, and Rozier and Jones thrive on getting into the paint and making plays at the rim. That becomes excruciatingly tougher to accomplish against a paint-packed 2-3, even though most of Duke’s backcourt defenders have proved incapable of guarding anyone (more on that below).

Plus, even though defensive rebounding becomes a much tougher task when playing zone, it didn’t hurt Duke. True, Duke drags in roughly 75% of their opponents’ missed shots on the season (50^th best nationally), and on Saturday it was closer to 60%, but Louisville capitalized on very few of its 18 offensive boards.

Duke also played by far its best offensive game of the last three outings, despite the fact that Matt Jones made as many threes (2) as the entire starting five (Duke’s last 3 games from behind the line: 17-63 3FG, which comes out to 27%).

The Blue Devils shot 49% overall versus one of the best defenses in the country. Point guard Tyus Jones (10 points, 8 assists to just 2 turnovers) had his best game in quite some time, and Duke overcame a rare off day from Quinn Cook by feeding the bigs early and often: Jahlil Okafor had 18 points and 7 rebounds on 8-10 FG, and Amile Jefferson went for 19 and 7 on 6-7 FG—that’s ridiculous efficiency from your starting frontcourt.

All in all, a solid showing from Duke on the road against an elite opponent. It was one the Blue Devils needed to win in order to put an end to an ugly, forgettable two-game skid.

However, my qualm is this: Does Krzyzewski appointment of the 2-3 zone against Louisville stunt Duke’s overall growth? As in, as great as it is to tack on a win at Louisville on the resume, is Duke really going to become a Syracuse clone defensively? If K and his staff really believe in the zone, why didn’t they mix it in against Miami?

In my opinion, Krzyzewski’s choice to go 2-3 at Louisville is equivalent to putting a Band-Aid on a gun shot wound: It provides a quick-lived short-term solution, but it’s really a temporary camouflage of the larger issue at hand, which in Duke’s case is keeping ball handlers in front and protecting the rim.

I went back and watched the tape from the NC State and Miami games. Additionally, I’ve seen as much of Duke as just about every other elite team this year, which is a lot, for the record.

Off the court, Duke guards Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones seem to be tight, but their collective on-ball defense has been anything but. Can the two continue to be on the floor at the same time?

Here are some thoughts:

• Quinn Cook plays a team high 33.8 minutes per game. Tyus Jones plays nearly 29 minutes per game. Cook and Jones are Duke’s primary ball-handlers, are both are indispensable pieces to Duke’s puzzle. But they’re below-average defenders to begin with, and it only exacerbates the problem that (a) Duke picks up the opposing ball handler as soon as the player crosses half-court, if not sooner, and (b) Jones and Cook are often entrusted with sticking the opponents’ best backcourt options. Neither Jones nor Cook could cover a boiling pot of pasta, especially on-the-ball. Jones gets consistently blown by off-the-bounce, and all it took for Miami’s Angel Rodriguez to fly by was a simple change-of-speed; Rodriguez only had to pull out his nice crossover and inside-out dribble on rare occasions. Cook is a tad better at keeping the guy in front of him, but he’s average at best in that regard. Jones and Cook regularly got into the shorts of Trevor Lacy (NC State), Rodriguez, and Lecomte, and poor defensive fundamentals plus middling quickness led to a blow-by and an immediate 5-on-4 situation for the opposition.

• NBADraft.net says the following about Tyus Jones: “Really struggles on the defensive end due to lack of great strength and length…Gambles too much defensively to offset deficiencies…Defensive limitations will magnify at pro level.” Having watched a lot of Tyus this season, I agree wholeheartedly with all the above. He plays too straight-up on D, and as comfortable as he looks running the show on the offensive end, that’s how out-of-place he appears on defense. As for the “defensive limitations will magnify at the pro level” part, look at some of the stat-lines of guards Duke has faced this year: 15 points and 8 assists for Michigan State’s Travis Trice; 18 points on 7-13 FG for Temple’s Will Cummings; 22 points for Stanford’s Chasson Randle; 25 points on 7-12 FG for Wisconsin’s Traevon Jackson; 22 points on 7-13 FG for UConn’s Ryan Boatright; 21 points on 8-13 FG for NC State’s Trevor Lacey; and 24 points on 8-15 FG for Angel Rodriguez. Opposing guards are having field days going up against Jones and Cook.

• Duke has gotten burned on simple straight-line drives to the basket, but that’s nothing compared to the Blue Devils’ half-assed ball-screen defense. Miami had an excellent game-plan against Duke: Jim Larranaga knows that Duke likes to pressure ball-handlers to the point where opponents can’t even run their sets, so Larranaga basically threw out the playbook and called for at least one on-ball screen per possession, which did two things: One, it freed up guys like Rodriguez, McClellan, and Lecomte, even though they were doing just fine taking Jones and Cook 1-on-1. Two, it drew Okafor out of the paint, as Tonye Jekiri must have set 30+ on-ball screens at or above the three-point line. When Cook would go under the screen, Rodriguez buried uncontested triples. When Cook or Jones went over the screen, Rodriguez drove to the basket unperturbed with numbers in his favor (see above Vine for visual confirmation). But poor pick-and-roll defense entails two perpetrators—it’s not just the guy guarding the ball. Which leads me to…

• As much praise as Jahlil Okafor receives for his low-post dominance on offense, he deserves an equal amount of flack for his questionable defense, and it was exposed worse than ever in the Miami game. I try to go to NBADraft.net everyday for updated mock drafts and player comparisons, strengths, and weaknesses. Here’s what the site’s experts say about Okafor on the other end of the floor: “Lack of athleticism and ability to be a game changer on the defensive end limits his upside…Has trouble moving his feet in pick and roll situations.” The latter is a severe understatement; he’s flat-footed, doesn’t threaten the ball handler when hedging, and takes forever to get back into the paint. Against Miami, there were some possessions in which Okafor was dragged out so far by a Jekiri ball-screen that he barely retreated back inside the arc as the shot was going up. On sequences such as those, it was hard not to get déjà vu thinking back to Duke’s porous rim protection last year, when all that stood between an opposing guard and a layup was Jabari Parker, who played out-of-position way more than he ever should of (K sometimes placed him at the “5”). Is Okafor a better rim protector than Parker? Of course he is. But last season, Duke ranked 281^st in opponents’ field goal percentage on shots at the rim (62.7%), and although that number is down it still remains a problem area (140^th, 56.1%). That’s remarkable considering Okafor has at least 3 inches and 30-40 pounds on Jabari. Watch Okafor attempt to defend the pick-and-roll on a few trips, however, and it’ll start making some sense.

• Justice Winslow is Duke’s finest perimeter defender, and Rasheed Sulaimon isn’t bad, either, but they normally deny the first pass on the wing and therefore are rarely available to help.

• One last department that the Blue Devils are getting burned in? Transition defense. Only Boston College has been worse this season among ACC teams at opponents’ efficiency in the fast-break setting. Miami outscored Duke 13-3 on the break. Louisville only managed 2 fast-break points on Saturday. So what serves as a better representation of the season, the former or the latter? I’ll go with the former, Miami, considering Duke is 283^rd nationally with an opponents’ transition eFG (efficient field goal percentage) of 58.1%. Miami enjoyed way too many transition dunks at Cameron Indoor, some of them off basic missed shots, and Rodriguez and Lecomte walked into a couple wide-open transition 3’s, when no Duke defender showed a great-enough sense of urgency to stop the ball and man up.

Overall, I don’t know what to make of Duke at this point in the season. Despite outside shooting woes of late, I think their offense can reach championship-level come March. But I just don’t envision them getting enough stops to take home a national championship, something that looked highly realistic just a couple of weeks ago.

In the half-court, Duke folds in ball-screen situations, and Jones and Cook can’t close out opposing guards in attacking scenarios. Okafor is an overrated rim protector, and Jefferson doesn’t instill fear in any opposing slasher. The Blue Devils also have had trouble getting back in transition after a turnover or missed shot.

Which brings us back to the Louisville game and Krzyzewski selling his soul to the devil.

For some games, a 2-3 zone will be just what the doctor ordered. I expect Duke to play 99.9% zone Monday night against Pittsburgh (31.6% 3FG, 3^rd-worst among all Power-6 schools with just 4.4 made threes per game).

But what will they do against the likes of Notre Dame (16^th nationally with 8.8 made threes per game, 5 guys with 25+ made 3’s) and Virginia (Justin Anderson, Malcolm Brogdon, London Perrantes, etc.)?

Or, how about versus Kentucky, Villanova, Gonzaga, Utah, Arizona, or Kansas? Is Duke going to stick with the foreign 2-3 when it’s a win-or-go-home situation, versus teams that are prolific shooting the ball, cleaning up the offensive glass, or both?

Remember, prior to Saturday, Duke played zone on less than 4% of all possessions, some of those obviously coming in OOB (out-of-bounds) sequences. According to Sports Illustrated’s David Gardner, the Blue Devils actually sat back in zone 7 straight possessions Presbyterian in the season opener.

Let me repeat: Presbyterian. Season opener. 69-point win.

And you expect me to believe Krzyzewski is going to become Boeheim overnight, employing the 2-3 and mastering its intricacies while fully comprehending every strength and weakness that a zone poses?

A Band-Aid on a gunshot wound…

K is smart, arguably the smartest coach in the sport. He has more wins than anybody (and more wins than over 100 Division-1 programs).

Eventually, he’ll wise up and purchase jump ropes for Jones and Okafor.

In all seriousness, though, K will figure it out. Perhaps he’ll tuck away the zone in his front pocket, not the back pocket, so that he can whip it out anytime that the man-to-man scheme gives him flashbacks from the NC State and Miami games.

For the time being, Duke would be well-suited to give opposing point guards a step, and let the wings play closer to the paint for the purpose of help, even though that contradicts Krzyzewski’s creed entirely.

One thing we do know is that Krzyzewski, one of the best educators in the game, has tweaked the lesson plan. And the teaching has only just begun.

Ulis The Latest Cat to Affirm Kentucky’s Ridiculous Depth

Tyler Ulis was unflappable against Louisville’s pressure defense last Saturday, scoring a team-high 14 points without turning the ball over once. Ulis is the best all-around point guard on Kentucky’s roster, and coach John Calipari is beginning to realize that.

There’s a fine line between having depth and having bodies, and that was very evident in #1 Kentucky’s 58-50 win over #4 Louisville last Saturday at the KFC Yum! Center.

Louisville has bodies, most of which are talented and will play bigger roles down the road, but it has yet to develop the type of depth that Rick Pitino-coached teams are accustomed to having.

Just six Cardinals average over 15 minutes per game (the starters plus Mangok Mathiang, who platoons at the center position with Chinanu Onuaku), and versus Kentucky, Pitino did not feel comfortable inserting either Anton Gill (12.2 minutes per game, 3.6 points per game) or Anas Mahmoud (12.4 MPG, 1.9 PPG) into the game.

Louisville had just 3 bench points, all of them coming on a first-half Shaqquan Aaron 3-pointer. Aaron logged 10 minutes, Mathiang 20, and backup pointguard Quentin Snider 1. As a result, Wayne Blackshear, Montrezl Harrell, Chris Jones, and Terry Rozier all played 35+ minutes.

Then there’s Kentucky.

The Wildcats possess ridiculous depth—it’s the deepest team I’ve ever seen—and they only have “bodies” in the sense that John Calipari has an overabundance of future first-round draft picks and guys that could stick around in the NBA for a decade-plus.

The major topic of conversation surrounding Kentucky this season (along with the talk of an undefeated campaign—more on that below—and their historically suffocating defense) has been the platoon system.

I got news for you, folks: RIP to the Platoon. It was cool while it lasted, but it’s done with. It’s not only due to Alex Poythress’s torn ACL; it’s more of the fact that Coach Cal is realizing who his best lineup is and is learning to play with the hot hand.

Kentucky is 13-0. In the first seven games, there was only one in which an individual’s playing time exceeded 25 minutes: Willie Cauley-Stein and Dakari Johnson each logged 26 minutes vs. Buffalo.

In the six games since, at least one Wildcat has been on the floor for over 25 minutes in every game but one.

And on Saturday, Trey Lyles paced Kentucky at 30 minutes, while Devin Booker played 28 and Karl-Anthony Towns, Aaron Harrison, and Tyler Ulis played 26 apiece.

Ulis, all 5’9” of him, validated that ridiculous depth more than anyone at the KFC Yum! Center. Going up against the best defensive backcourt in the land in Louisville’s Chris Jones and Terry Rozier, Ulis scored a team-high 14 points and ran the show with a level of poise and casualness unheard of for a pointguard, let alone a freshman playing in his first-ever true road game as a collegiate.

The biggest number? 0, as in the number of turnovers Ulis had—keep in mind this is a Louisville team that, coming into the Bluegrass showdown, was Top-10 nationally in both opponents’ turnovers per game and opponents’ assist/turnover ratio.

Ulis was only credited with 2 assists, but he had countless dime passes and made great decisions in pick-and-roll situations. Plus, those 2 assists were quite meaningful: The first was in the open floor, when Ulis, who just checked into the game, wisely pushed the ball and found Lyles for a midrange jumper. The second was at the 1:06 mark in the second half, with Louisville on a 5-0 run in comeback mode, when Ulis probed the defense, got into the lane, and kicked it out to a wide-open Aaron Harrison for the dagger three on the left wing.

On the year, Ulis has 41 assists and 13 turnovers, for an absurdly efficient 3.2 A:TO differential–one that is in London Perrantes (Virginia PG) territory.

Oftentimes, small pointguards—cough, Chris Jones—think they can tangle with the trees in the paint, which leads to Phil Pressey-like 2-point field-goal percentage. Ulis, who might just have a higher basketball IQ than the Harrison twins combined, has a really nice floater that he showed off a lot against Louisville.

Ulis is Kentucky’s second best outside shooter behind fellow first-year Devin Booker, and he’s the best perimeter defender on the roster.

In a game that featured some of the best guards the country has to offer—Jones, Rozier, and the Harrison twins—it’s equal parts comical and remarkable just how much better Ulis played than all of them.

Chris Jones was 3-15 from the floor, and I honestly wish a stat existed for a player’s percentage of missed shots converted directly to opponents’ easy buckets, because if such a metric existed Jones would set records in that department.

Rozier wasn’t much better: 5-18 FG and no assists. (Louisville had 1 team assist on the day!)

Aaron Harrison, UK’s shooting guard, was 2-10 FG and had some historically bad shot selection, but he was not be outdone by brother Andrew (pointguard), who had 6 turnovers, left his feet seemingly every time before making a poor pass, and wanted absolutely no part of Jones or Rozier while bringing the ball up.

I’m not denying the Harrisons’ talent. Aaron is a natural scorer, made every big shot in last year’s NCAA Tournament, and at 6’6”, both cause major size mismatches for the opposition.

But, ponder these numbers: 36.9%, as in their combined shooting percentage this season (79-214 FG); 28.7%, as in their woeful combined three-point percentage (27-94 3FG); and 4.4, 1.8—the first number represents Aaron Harrison’s average free-throw attempts per game in his freshman campaign, while the latter number is his average FTA this year. That’s 66 attempted 3’s by Aaron to only 24 attempted FT, for a guy shooting 27.3% from distance. Keep jacking, kid!

The Harrisons shall and will remain critical components of Kentucky’s nucleus, but UK’s best backcourt tandem is Tyler Ulis and Devin Booker. Throw in Lyles, Towns, and Cauley-Stein, and that might be Cal’s best lineup.

The remains? Both Harrisons, Marcus Lee, and Dakari Johnson. Not too shabby, huh?

The deepest team—by leaps and bounds—is also the best team—also by leaps and bounds—in America.

When you factor in how elite the likes of Lyles, Booker, and especially Ulis have been performing, that’s absolutely no coincidence.

Devin Booker, Ulis’ running mate in the backcourt, is 9-11 from behind the three-point line the last three games.

Other Thoughts from Saturday:

• It’s time to cue the undefeated talk. The SEC has been below average for a few years now, and this season will be no exception. UK’s toughest remaining games: February 7 at Florida, February 10 at LSU, February 28 vs. Arkansas. If the Wildcats can survive that grueling 4-day, 2-game stretch in early February, I think they will enter NCAA Tournament play unscathed. UK may look past some SEC opponents for a half or so, but the disparity in talent will allow the Cats to prevail against the lesser foes in the conference.

• Kentucky is nearly perfect in every aspect of the game. If I had to nitpick and point out a few shortcomings, though, I would go with defensive rebounding, free-throw accuracy, and 3-point shooting. I can’t imagine that Cal is stressing over any of these three areas of improvement, though. Here’s why:

• A major part of the reason as to why Kentucky ranks a lowly 317^th (out of 351 D-1 teams) in opponents’ offensive rebounds per game is because Kentucky forces so many missed shots—some of those bricks are bound to fall into the hands of the opposition. Even though UK ranks 202^nd with a 69.9% defensive rebounding percentage, they are 7^th overall in total rebounding rate, thanks to leading the country in offensive rebounding percentage (45.4%).
• Kentucky is cashing in on only 66.2% of its free throws—good for 243^rd nationally—and that’s in large part because Dakari Johnson (only 56.7% FT) and Willie Cauley-Stein (60.5% FT) lead the team in attempts. Calipari can practically assure himself that he won’t have to relive those horrible 2008 NCAA memories—when Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose combined to shoot 1-5 FT in the final 1:15 of the championship game versus Kansas—by putting an end-game lineup on the floor of some combination of the Harrisons, Ulis, and Booker.
• Kentucky makes only 5.5 threes per game at a 32.1% clip, but since the Columbia game, when the Cats missed 15 of 17 threes without the services of Ulis and Booker due to injury, they have been red hot from behind the line. Against UNC, UCLA, and Louisville, UK shot 45% from deep while making 8.3 treys per game (25-55 3FG). Booker is a silly 9-11 in that span, Ulis an economical 4-8, while the Harrisons have provided the other 12 made threes.

• Further reasoning as to why a lack of defensive rebounds, made free throws, and converted three-pointers won’t matter that much? D-E-F-E-N-S-E. Kentucky played the nation’s fifth toughest schedule in the nonconference slate, yet they rank 1^st in the following categories: opponents’ PPG (47.8), opponents’ efficient fieldgoal percentage (34.1% eFG), opponents’ two-point percentage (31.2% 2FG), opponents’ three-point percentage (26.7% 3FG), opponents’ field goals made per game (16.4), blocks per game (8.2), and opponents’ assist-to-turnover discrepancy (0.399). On December 13th, UNC actually played pretty darn well in Lexington. The Tar Heels shot 45% from the field, made 6 of 13 threes, and scored 70 points. (the most anyone’s scored against the Cats all year!) But Kansas, Providence, Texas, UCLA, and Louisville? They shot a collective 25.8% from the floor (70-271 FG), 23.4% from distance (18-77 3FG), and had 28 assists versus 75 turnovers (0.37 A/TO ratio). I’ve never seen ANYTHING like that, against that level of competition.

• This was the 48^th all-time meeting between Louisville and Kentucky, but only the 2^nd where both schools were ranked in the Top-5? That baffles me.

• A couple of thoughts on the Kentucky frontcourt: Trey Lyles’ midrange game is absolute money, and for a 6’10”, 235-pound guy, he may be able to play some “3” in the NBA. Karl-Anthony Towns has been so impressive to me this year—he’s more physical than I ever remember him being pre-college, an elite rebounder that keeps the ball high when coming down with a board (his per-40 minute average is 13.9 RPG), and a gazelle in the open court, both with and without the ball. Although we haven’t seen his long-range game yet—he’s 1-5 on threes—he’s going to be that much more impossible to guard when he gets more comfortable as a pick-and-pop type. He’s a top-5 lock in the NBA Draft in my opinion, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go as high as #2. And my final thought: How about the fact that Willie Cauley-Stein, who could easily be a First-Team All-American if the season ended today, gets in foul trouble versus Louisville and it doesn’t even faze the Cats? That’s special.

Pangos Wisely Deferring to Star-Studded Supporting Cast

We associate Gonzaga’s Kevin Pangos as being a three-point assassin and, while that still holds true despite his recent shooting slump, he has become so much more than that for the Top-10 Bulldogs.

I honestly couldn’t believe it.

Michigan falling to N.J.I.T? Shocking, yes, but now what I was referring to.

Incarnate Word (Who?) beating Nebraska on their home floor? Another jaw-dropper, but still not what I was getting at.

I’m talking about Kevin Pangos, and the fact that the senior marksman recently went an entire three halves without making a fieldgoal, finally ending the basketless drought with a jumper in the second half Saturday night in Gonzaga’s 87-74 win at UCLA.

The same Kevin Pangos who nailed 84 three-pointers last year and is a ridiculous 41% career shooter from behind the arc also missed 9 consecutive threes in an incredulous streak that spanned three games (missed his last 3-point attempt @ Arizona last Saturday, all 3 tries vs. Washington State on Wednesday, and his initial 5 Saturday night).

Then, with 4:09 remaining in the game, UCLA cutting a once-comfortable Gonzaga lead down to 8, and a mostly lifeless Pauley Pavilion finally exceeding the decibels of the on-campus library, Pangos buried a three at the shot-clock buzzer, accomplishing two things with the early dagger: One, he pulled the plug on what little remaining wind was left in UCLA’s sails, and two, one of the best shooters in the country got the monkey off his back in what was an abnormal 3-point slump.

Pangos is now shooting just 24% (6-25 FG) overall and 1-12 from three in his last 3 games, but I would not be the slightest bit perturbed if I were Mark Few.

First off, a guy with 254 career triples and a textbook stroke isn’t going to suddenly forget how to knock down shots from the outside.

Secondly, as cliché and as overused as this phase is when referring to the evolution of a player, Pangos does so many other things well besides shooting the trifecta, and he’s developed into a complete player.

In fact, Pangos’ maturation, especially his ability to facilitate and defer to some extremely talented and efficient teammates, is enough for me to envision Gonzaga cutting down the nets and winning the national championship.

I’m not saying they will…

I’m saying they can.

As a leader and a point guard, Pangos has been that good this year.

Pangos is averaging 5.3 assists per game for the 9-1 Bulldogs—an increase of 1.7 assists per game compared to last year—and he has upped his dimes while averaging even less turnovers (a solid 1.7 TPG last year, down to 1.2 TPG this year).

His dazzling 53:14 assist-to-turnovers ratio is partly due to the array of economical teammates he has at his disposal, namely Przemek Karnowski, Byron Wesley, Domantas Sabonis, and Kyle Wiltjer. But it’s more than that. Pangos has always been one of the best in pick-and-roll situations, and he is adamant about Gonzaga not getting a good shot, but rather the best shot every trip down the floor.

Pangos took 10.3 shots a game last year, and nearly 6 of those were three-pointers. Those numbers are down to 7.1 and 3.6, respectively.

From an individual standpoint, senior campaigns can often be confused with NBA auditions, when shooters transform into chuckers and the mind tricks you into making you believe that the “best shots” are the ones that leave your own fingertips.

Pangos has potential to be a backup point guard in the league, but it’s not about that right now. That’s something that has been very evident in his play and unselfishness this season.

It takes about five minutes to watch Gonzaga and realize that Pangos’ philosophy is brilliant when accounting for who surrounds him.

Sabonis, fresh off of a 10 point, 6 rebound performance (4-5 FG) against UCLA, is shooting 75% from the field as the Bulldogs’ top reserve. (75%!!!) Karnowski, a fellow lefty post player, is making buckets at a 56% clip.

Wesley, who has scored 20 points each of his last two outings, is shooting 77% (17-22 FG) in those games. It’s been more of the same from Wiltjer, whose last two point totals are 21 (vs. WSU) and 24 (@ UCLA)—he is 18-27 from the floor, including a 5-7 showing from deep.

Gonzaga’s balance and efficiency is overwhelming for most opponents. Such was the case against UCLA, who seemed to take no offense to the Bulldogs getting anything and everything they wanted, whether it was Wesley cutting unaccompanied to the lane, Sabonis going at layup-line speed and finishing on the other end of the basket, Wiltjer nailing kickout 3’s, Wiltjer mocking everyone with running hooks from the baseline, Wiltjer….you get the point: Wiltjer made the perfect transferring decision, is locked in right now in all facets of the game, and is the leading scorer of a team that is bursting with high-percentage options.

And that all comes back to Pangos. The clear-cut general of one of the two most complete offenses in the nation—with all due respect to teams like Notre Dame and Indiana, only Duke’s attack has blown the roof off my doors with the same force as Gonzaga’s “O”—Pangos has recalibrated his game, allowing guys like Sabonis and Wesley to come in and shine right away. That puts Gonzaga in prime position to at least return to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the 2008-2009 season.

 

 

 

Virginia Holds Rutgers to Lowest Scoring Output in 70 Years To Win Barclays Center Classic

Virginia’s Justin Anderson looks like a brand new player this season, sprinkling in some ferocious dunks with accurate outside shooting. Anderson was named Tournament MVP of the Barclays Center Classic.

Out of all the elite teams in the country, there might not be a single one that could do what Virginia did Saturday night: score just 45 points yet beat a power-conference opponent in blowout fashion. (San Diego State might have the best chance to emulate this, as a Kentucky or Texas would never score below 50.)

It certainly wasn’t an offensive clinic for the Cavaliers (7-0)—backcourt mates London Perrantes and Malcolm Brogdon combined to shoot 3-17 from the field, including 0-8 from deep—but then again it didn’t have to be. At least not against Rutgers (3-3), who shot 25% overall, failed to connect on any of 13 three-point attempts, and scored 2 points over the final 15:45.

Consider that last stat: Over the final 15 minutes, 45 seconds of gametime, Rutgers mustered one basket, a Mike Williams layup. After the Scarlet Knights surprisingly led 18-17 at half, they began the second half making 3 of their first 6 field goals. The rest of the game, they shot 1-20 FG (5%).

Trust me, that’s the worst drought you’ll ever see from a Big-10 team this year. Or any power-conference team, for that matter. And it was a combination of Virginia’s unyielding defense and Rutgers’ inability to take and make good shots.

Rutgers’ 26 points were the lowest the program has scored since the 1942-1943 season, when they put up 24 against in-state foe Princeton.

Here are 4 takeaways from what was a true slugfest, one that netted Virginia a Barclays Center Classic Title:

1. UVA must continue to draw whistles and get to the line as they did in the second half tonight…

In the first half, Virginia didn’t attempt a single free throw. Part of that was the intensity and discipline of Rutgers defense, plus Greg Lewis’ constant denials, but it was also Virginia getting complacent by trying to be something they’re not, which is a jump-shooting team. Coming into the game, UVA ranked 329^th nationally in 3-pointers attempted per game (13.5). Then they went out and jacked up 9 threes—as well as some long 2’s—in the first 20 minutes. Coach Tony Bennett clearly emphasized this in the locker room at the break, because UVA came out attacking in hopes to earn some easy points at the charity stripe. The Cavaliers finished 7-9 on freethrows, including Anthony Gill’ 5-6 showing—I think Gill drew 4 fouls by himself before the second half’s first TV timeout. (Gill is such an unsung hero, both on the Cavaliers and nationally as well.) One of the main keys of the game was UVA getting Lewis in foul trouble, which opened up the paint and offensive glass.

2. Rutgers needs a more efficient Kadeem Jack to show up…

Senior forward Kadeem Jack is Rutgers’ best player, and a fringe NBA prospect that will probably end up making six figures annually overseas, but the Scarlet Knights need their 6’9” star to be more resourceful night-in and night-out. Sure, Jack may be averaging 14.3 PPG on the young season, but it has taken him 41 shots to accrue 43 points. In the two games at Barclays (vs. Vanderbilt and Virginia), Jack shot 35% (12-34 FG). For a guy who is the focal point of scouting reports, it is imperative that Jack choses his spots wisely and uses his gifts to get more easy baskets.

3. Justin Anderson has elevated his game to a new level…

It’s difficult to replace a four-year stalwart like Joe Harris, who still plays for the Cavaliers—the NBA’s version though, not the ones who call Charlottesville home. Still, Virginia’s Justin Anderson has flourished early on this year with inheriting some of Harris’ previous responsibilities. Anderson was basically UVA’s offense in the first half tonight as he had as many FG (4) as the rest of his teammates combined. A ferocious dunker—he jammed 3 or 4 on Rutgers—Anderson is also 15-24 from 3-point land after shooting 29% (30-102 3FG) from behind the arc last season. Anderson is not one to lack confidence and possesses some serious swagger, but credit him for being able to back it up with his play on the court.

4. Eddie Jordan can at least come away pleased with his team’s effort…

Rutgers hasn’t had a winning season since the 2005-2006 campaign, when Quincy Douby averaged 25.4 PPG and Gary Waters was pacing the sidelines. I don’t expect this to be the year that Rutgers finishes above .500, being that they’ve already lost 3 times this November and are in for a rude awakening in their first year in Big-10 conference play. Regardless, Eddie Jordan’s overmatched squad showed some serious fight tonight for the first 25 minutes or so. Some late fast-break layups by Virginia ran the score up, but by no means was the 45-26 final indicative of the game itself. In the first half, Rutgers got after it defensively (besides Kadeem Jack, that is), applying good ball pressure to Perrantes and Brogdon, and the Scarlet Knights limited UVA to one shot the majority of the time. Greg Lewis did some really nice things, blocking a career-high 5 shots in 25 minutes, and if he could ever stay out of foul trouble he would be a really nice rim protector. Rutgers might lose 20 games, but it’s a good sign that RU rebounded from an 18-point loss to St. Peter’s with a win over Vanderbilt and a semi-competitive loss to Top-10 Virginia.

Recapping UConn’s Magic Run: The Huskies’ 3 “It” Factors

Besides those ever-rare exceptions, it really is true that numbers never lie. Still, there are some things that occur in sports that cannot be quantified by digits, percentages, and decimals. Take UConn, for example. A team that lost to Louisville three times by a combined 55 points and twice to eventual NIT runner-up SMU was crowned national champion of college basketball Monday night in Dallas. The Huskies went on a run for the ages, one that definitely triggers a few flashbacks to the 2011 postseason—when Kemba Walker won his final 11 games as a collegiate en route to an improbable third national title for the program. Now that his predecessor, Shabazz Napier, has delivered Trophy Number Four to Storrs, certain “it” factors cannot be ignored any longer.

DeAndre Daniels and Ryan Boatright, shown here embracing during the Michigan State game in the Elite 8, took some of the load off All-American Shabazz Napier when it mattered most this season. Daniels and Boatright saved their best for the NCAA Tournament, which the Huskies won on Monday night by beating Kentucky.

Was UConn the best team in the country this year? Certainly not. The likes of Florida, Arizona, Wichita State, Wisconsin, and Michigan all had better rosters than Connecticut, and up to Monday night they had more accomplished resumes as well. But what does that matter today? UConn got scorching hot at the perfect moment, and that ended up being bad news for St. Joe’s, Villanova, Iowa State, Michigan State, Florida (for the second time this year) and Kentucky.

Napier was tremendous throughout the NCAA Tournament, but that had been the case from the opening tip in November. What about the others? As in, the guys that defied expectations, hushed all critics, and ignored the accolades of their opponent? I’m talking about the ones that went on the court, defended like absolute madmen, and did all the little things necessary to have the Hungry Huskies prevail over UK’s youthful kittens. Without them, UConn would be nothing. But with them, UConn was able to throw out all the numbers—the higher seeds of their competition, the gaudy stats of the opposing coach and star player, and the recruiting rankings. Specifically, 3 “it” factors backed up Napier and took this group from a 7-seed to national champs. Not only do they deserve all the credit in the world, but they also are about to get all the credit in the world in this very column. (Side note: UConn wouldn’t be cutting down the nets without Amida Brimah or Terrance Samuel, both of whom balled out themselves in the postseason.)

 

DeAndre Daniels

I’m trying to use as little numerical data as possible to support my “it” factor claims, however the following is one stat that cannot be ignored: UConn was 8-0 this season when Daniels went off for at least 18 points. The man that Husky Nation had been waiting on for three entire seasons to put the entire package together –and not just for one game, but rather for a steady stretch—answered the bell at last. Daniels was truly dazzling against St. Joe’s, Iowa State, and Florida, and he provided enough on both sides of the ball in the other three NCAA Tournament games to get the job done.

Daniels knocked down perimeter jumpers with supreme confidence, and he got to the rim with a quick first step and ferocious vertical athleticism (two aspects that we really don’t associate him with). He played poised, and he almost played pissed off, which brought out the best in him. On defense, too, a definitive weakness in his arsenal, Daniels held his own in the paint against guys like Michigan State’s Branden Dawson, Florida’s Patric Young, and various bigs from Kentucky. The wiry 6’9” junior may weigh in at under 195 pounds, but it’s impossible to measure his heart—the heart that caused UConn to be at an advantage despite putting Daniels at the center position at times.

Think about this: A crazy small lineup of Napier, Boatright, Lasan Kromah or Terrance Samuel, Niels Giffey, and Daniels controlled the defensive glass and compensated for their shortness with their grittiness and quick hands. And on offense, Daniels was often in mismatch heaven—he surely made teams pay for that.

 

Niels Giffey

OK, OK, I know I said no stats, but I discovered yet another gem that is too good to pass up. With my mind on the DeAndre Daniels figure above, I went directly to Niels Giffey’s game log to find something as equally as impressive. And I did just that: UConn was 12-0 this season when Giffey hauled down at least 5 rebounds. I think I love that more than I do Niels’s beard.

Coach Kevin Ollie said it best about Giffey after the win over Kentucky, when he was asked if he still had confidence in his German sniper breaking out of his mini shooting slump. Ollie said yes, of course he had faith in Giffey, who hit 2 major threes in the second half for his first multi-triple game since St. Joe’s, but he also gave Niels the ultimate coach-player compliment. Ollie praised Giffey for his ability to contribute beautifully despite not hitting shots, and it has been special to see the now two-time champ evolve into a jack-of-all-trades type. Freshman year, Jim Calhoun gave Giffey minutes for the same reason, but it is obvious that Giffey’s on-ball defense, propensity to crash the boards, and aptitude to make plays off the bounce have all been enhanced and polished over the course of his career. Maybe all he was missing was a little swag, which he gained this past summer while playing with the German national squad against NBA players. (Never, never underestimate how an underclassmen spends his offseason—ask Nik Stauskas for more information.)

Even with a few missed jumpers, some of which even teased the audience by going in-and-out, Giffey never let his shooting funk dictate his effort or his aggressiveness. He will leave Storrs with two rings, a few razors for shaving purposes, and a guarantee to make money playing basketball somewhere overseas.

 

Ryan Boatright

The best illustration of my (and many others) feelings toward Ryan Boatright is that of a seesaw. When Boatright was still in high school, I drove my home friends nuts by constantly showing them YouTube clips of Boatright’s insane handles, and I couldn’t wait until he got to the 860 to showcase that ball-on-a-string talent on a national stage. After his suspension eventually lifted his freshman season, Boatright was somewhat of an enigma—and he had been that in my opinion until this NCAA Tournament.

He was the quickest and fastest guy on the team, but too often he seemed content with toying with toying with his defender before pulling up for a lame, contested jumper. His decision making was questionable, and it quickly became apparent that he was nowhere near your prototypical point guard despite his petite frame. On defense, too, I longed for more from Boatright. He had all the tools to be a lockdown guy on the same level as Aaron Craft and Arizona’s T.J. McConnell, but he preferred gambling for steals over sliding his feet, keeping his palms up, and beating his man to the spot.

Then, something changed. After taking over 10 shots in a game a whopping 14 times in the regular season, he didn’t eclipse the 1o-shot plateau one single time in 9 playoff games. That belongs on the Mount Rushmore of statistics. Boatright’s efficiency skyrocketed, he was getting to the free throw line, and inexplicably he began knocking down the tough long two’s and threes that he was missing earlier in the campaign. And on defense? Here’s something I never thought I would write: Ryan Freaking Boatright was the best perimeter defender in the NCAA Tournament. Instead of opponents comfortably setting up offensive sets like it was a 5-on-0 practice, UConn forced teams like Michigan State and Kentucky to run their plays from way above the three-point arc. Boatright took pride in turning point guards a few times even before crossing half-court, and despite guarding the ball for such an extended period, he rarely fouled. Boatright learned to use his feet more than his hands, and it paid major dividends.

Next year, with Napier gone and Daniels potentially headed to the NBA as well, I can’t wait to see how Boatright handles the role of go-to guy while (hopefully) simultaneously preserving his new reputation as a defender you do not want to mess with.